This is coming a little late, but I forgot to post it.
Disappointment. That’s how the Hawkeye faithful characterize their beloved football team’s abysmal performance during the 2007 season. The Hawks went 6-6 ending with a home loss to Western Michigan, which pushed the team out of bowl contention and left the Hawks staying home for the postseason for the first time in six years. Now Head Coach Kirk Ferentz has been dubbed the most overpaid coach in college football by Forbes magazine, a claim not entirely unjustified considering that Iowa paid him $3.4 million for six wins last year and $4.7 million to lead Iowa to an Alamo Bowl loss the year before that. Another shaky year for the Hawks could put him on the hot seat.
Offense
To say the Iowa offense was terrible last season would be a vast understatement. The unit ranked last or next to last in the Big Ten and near the bottom in the country in nearly every imaginable category. They were 10th in the conference in passing and rushing offense (92nd and 94th respectively nationally), and last in the conference in total offense and scoring offense (109th and 110th respectively nationally). Perhaps the most glaring stat however would be a conference worst (114th national rank) 46 sacks allowed.
Does that mean more of the same this season? On the surface, it appears so. Iowa returns eight starters on offense, meaning eight of eleven players responsible for their less than stellar performance in 2007. However, consider that Iowa’s offense was devastated by injuries last season, many came in the early half of the campaign including star tight end Tony Moeaki and wide outs Andy Brodell and Trey Stross. Let’s not forget the revolving door to starting offensive line positions, as none of the starters could stay healthy for very long.
To state the obvious, quarterback Jake Christensen must play better if the Hawks want to improve from last year’s disaster they called an offense. As mentioned earlier, Iowa missed a bowl appearance for the first time in six seasons with Christensen directing traffic. Out of all the starting quarterbacks in those years, Christensen had the lowest quarterback rating, which was good for last in the Big Ten and 87th in the country. All too often last season, Christensen looked uncomfortable and not confident in the pocket. Questionable decisions, overthrows, and holding the ball too long seemed like all hawk fans could count on him to do; that is if he wasn’t on his back. With everyone back healthy again, Christensen will have no excuses this time around.
Iowa needs to fill the enormous void left by the departures of running backs Albert Young and Damien Simms and projected starter Jovan Pugh who left the team. Walk-on Paki O’Meara was on the top of the depth chart through the spring where he impressed the Iowa staff, but Shonn Greene who is returning to the team after a year in junior college to clear up his academics and junior Nate Guillory are expected to challenge O’Meara for the starting job. Expect a three-headed monster at running back as Iowa searches for a standout guy in the first few weeks of the season.
Defense
Despite receiving absolutely no help from the offense, the Iowa defense still managed to be one of the better defenses in the conference. A lot of fans I’ve talked to about the season last year were down on the defense, but they fail to realize that the unit was 12th in the country in scoring defense. If it wasn’t for the defense’s strong performance last year, Iowa could have done a lot worse than six wins.
The NFL draft claimed a lot of talent from the D, including All-Big Ten players: corner Charles Godfrey, and ends Kenny Iwebema and Bryan Mattison. Iowa returns only five starters, but don’t let that make you think that the Hawks can’t match last year’s performance. On the contrary, the Hawk defense looks to improve from last year. How is that possible? For one, the defense from last year had a lot of depth. Many of the new starters have enough talent to be just as good if not better than the guys they are replacing. Case in point, new defensive ends Christian Ballard and Adrian Clayborn and new middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian. Ballard and Clayborn brought an electric energy off the bench last season and both seem to have a motor Matt Roth would be proud of. Tarpinian stole the starting spot away from Jeremiah Hunter who also looks like more than a fitting replacement for Mike Klinkenborg.
Secondly, the defense’s veteran players will be even better. It all starts up front with star defensive tackles Mitch King and Matt Kroul. King looks to have another All-Big Ten season, making his presence felt in opposing backfields. Kroul will continue his consistent play while he makes everyone else on the line play better. Junior A.J. Edds, the only returning linebacker, anchors the front seven with his mix of talent and experience.
A traditional strength for the Iowa defense was a glaring weakness in ‘07, the pass rush. Iowa greatly relies on the front four to get pressure in Norm Parker’s system of little to no blitz defensive system. The Hawks were 8th in the conference in sacks last season, which greatly hindered the rest of the unit’s production. Look for this to change in ’08 as Iowa has three bona fide pass rushers on the line, and the front seven looks as strong as ever. Imagine what an improved pass rush could do for an already strong defense and it will only help the two new starters at corner.
Game by game breakdown
Let’s make one thing clear: Iowa underachieved last year. Imagine if the Hawks had not lost against rival Iowa State and Western Michigan, two games that on paper, Iowa should have won handily. It’s all of sudden a very different season from the heartbreaking travesty that was the 2007 campaign. Also, a lot of people forget that Iowa nearly beat Wisconsin in Camp Randall last season, and should have won had it not been for a late Badger comeback in the 4th quarter. If Iowa performs to its potential this year, every game on the schedule is very winnable, especially since they avoid both Ohio State and Michigan.
August 30 vs Maine: Are you kidding me? An easy win, but perhaps the end of the consecutive home sellout streak of 30 games.
September 6 vs FIU: Hopefully no helmets will be used as weapons as the Hawks roll to victory in another tune-up game.
September 13 vs ISU: The first major test of nearly every Iowa football season in recent memory. The Cyclones visit Kinnick for the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. This is Gene Chizik’s second season as head coach and his team will be improved from last year’s version that defeated the Hawkeyes 15-13 in Ames last year. Expect the Cyclone kicker to not make five field goals in this year’s meeting. Iowa wins.
September 20 at #25 Pitt: The first road game of the season will be a doozy. Head Coach Dave Wannstedt is in his fourth year at the helm with his best team yet. Running back LeSean McCoy is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate who finished ’07 leading all freshman in rushing and second overall in the Big East. Pitt also possess a standout defense that ranked 5th nationally led by All-American linebacker, Scott McKillop. The Hawks traditionally struggle on the road, especially early in the season. This fact coupled with a Panther team with high aspirations, makes this game the first loss for the Hawks in ’08.
September 27 vs Northwestern: The Hawkeyes beat the Wildcats in Evanston last year 28-17. The Iowa defense will be tested by the potent Wildcat passing attack, but I believe Iowa wins a in close game.
October 4 at Michigan State: It took two overtimes to beat the Spartans in Kinnick last season, but I don’t think Iowa will be that fortunate this time around. Second year Head Coach Mark Dantonio looks to have a much-improved team. Iowa loses another on the road.
October 11 at Indiana: A myriad of mistakes and miscues characterized Iowa’s 38-20 loss to Indiana in Iowa City in ’07. Iowa was unable to stop quarterback Kellen Lewis and wide receiver James Hardy from tearing through the usually stout Iowa defense. Many also remember the last time Iowa visited Bloomington when Hardy got behind the Iowa defense for three scores which resulted in another Hawkeye defeat. James Hardy is no longer there, and I believe Indiana over achieved last year. Indiana will be back to being Indiana this year. Iowa wins.
October 18 vs #13 Wisconsin: In one of the closest series Iowa has with any team, the battle for the Heartland Trophy has been a thriller in recent years. I expect much of the same this year. It will be a hard fought, low scoring, defensive game. Fueled by their heartbreaking loss in ’07 the Hawkeyes will give everything they have in Kinnick this year, but it won’t be enough. Another heartbreaker.
November 1 at #20 Illinois: Star running back Rashard Mendenhall is off to the NFL now and Illinois will have to rely more on quarterback Juice Williams to throw the ball, which he’ll have a hard time doing against the relentless Iowa pass rush. Kirk Ferentz has had Ron Zook’s number and I don’t expect that to change. Iowa wins in Champaign.
November 8 vs #22 Penn State: Kirk Ferentz at one time had a four game winning streak against Joe Paterno’s Nittany Lions. It was hard to tell that from last year’s embarrassing 27-7 defeat. Expect a much closer game since this year’s meeting is in Iowa City. I can see this one easily going either way, but I’m picking a loss.
November 15 vs Purdue: Although Purdue routed the Hawkeyes 31-6 last season. The game epitomized all of Iowa’s troubles of ’07, a complete self-destruction. In recent years, Boilermaker teams have been plagued by inconsistent play, I’m picking an Iowa victory.
November 22 at Minnesota: Minnesota is bad and has been for the past few seasons. Although they have given the Hawks a run for their money, the golden gophers will not be hoisting Floyd back to their sideline this year.
Final record 8-4 (5-3)
Keys to returning to a bowl and respectability
1. Stay healthy: Iowa has been severely bitten by the injury bug for the past few seasons. Tight end Tony Moeaki and both lines must stay healthy to fully realize the team’s potential.
2. Protect Kinnick Stadium: In the past two seasons, the fear-inducing monolith that is Kinnick has been reduced to a Boy Scout retreat for opposing teams. Iowa must bring the luster back to Kinnick and not lose to opponents they shouldn’t lose to at home.
3. Turn the battle in the trenches in their favor: Iowa will have a veteran offensive line which will be much improved. It must protect Jake Christensen and open up holes for Iowa’s newcomer filled backfield. Iowa’s defense relies on QB pressure. This should be easy, but that’s what they thought last year.
There is certainly room for this to be a nine or ten win season. There is also significant room to slip up and end up back where they started, bowless. No matter what happens in 2008, it will certainly be a pivotal year for the Iowa Hawkeye football program and Kirk Ferentz.
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