Sakura is still a strong character in Ultra. If that is what you came here to find out, then you may not read further. However, if you would like to know what I think of the changes in relation to her gameplay, read on.
First here are the official changes that were published by Capcom. Let's attack them one by one.
• Distance traveled by opponent after a back throw has been reduced
This is a great buff which now allows pressure to be maintained when Sakura performs a back throw. Set ups may not be as strong as forward throw, but Sakura gets to stay in.
• Far Standing MP hitbox slightly expanded forward
A buff to help with pressure strings and allows it counter poke certain moves easier like dive kicks and the like.
• Far standing HP now Special-, EX Focus-, EX Red Focus- and Super Combo-cancellable
Great buff. I can't say enough about this. This change allows for better pressure/frame traps. Sakura is mostly known for frame traps involving cl.sHP. With this change, players will not have to walk up as much in order to continue Tatsu pressure or confirm into a combo. This change also allows for beefier punishes from a distance for instances where cr.HP or cl.sHP will not reach.
• Diagonal Jump HP hurtbox slightly increased
This nerf was expected as everyone, most famously Arturo Sanchez, voiced their disdain for this move with its sheer unfairness. Even with the change, I find this is still a great move and still can beat anti-airs clean.
• All versions of Air Shunpukyaku trajectory changed on activation
Sakura players, we have been found out. Capcom seemingly forgot that Sakura had the Tatsu-copter escape across every previous version. This is a fair change and it may come with advantages regarding tricky if not gimmicky setups down the road.
• EX Shunpukyaku advantage on block reduced by 2 frames (+4F → +2F); made easier to connect on crouching opponents
Another nerf that was called upon by the masses. However, I feel this reduction on two frames is not that big of a deal. Opponents will still have to respect this move a great deal.
• All versions of Shouoken hitbox slightly expanded forward
This helps combos into Shouoken to connect more often with characters with funky hitboxes like Vega and Blanka.
• EX Sakura Otoshi earliest timing for additional attacks reduced by 3 frames (15F → 12F)
I'm not too sure why this change was added, but it's a buff so I shouldn't question it. Not sure what type of applications this could have.
• Shinku Hadoken (UC2) rear hitbox removed
Out of all the changes on this list, I hate this one the most. Since the whole reason I ever used U2 was to beat certain ambiguous cross ups. Now, I don't think I'll ever use U2.
Sakura in the new Meta
USF4's new mechanics hurt Sakura in relation to the rest of the cast. Delayed wakeup makes her Okizeme game much weaker and Sakura tends to be a setup oriented character. The charged fireball corner setup is dead for now until new setups are discovered. In the meantime, I have gone back to Vanilla air resets off of EX Tatsu (which still work pretty well).
Red focus means that other characters have access to some really high damage combos for not much effort. One of Sakura's trademarks, high damage, has been somewhat nullified by EX red focus. Keep in mind however that none of Sakura's damage or stun numbers were reduced in any way which means for those willing, Sakura can still deliver a powerful punch on any clean hit confirm.
Unfortunately, Sakura cannot utilize EX red focus too well herself. I tested pretty much all possibilities and for the meter cost, Sakura players are better off with their tried and true Shouoken > FADC combos. The only benefit to red focus would be it's much easier to perform than an FADC.
New Matchups
Elena- I think this is mostly even, perhaps Sakura's favor slightly. Elena is forced to play a ground game and Sakura can punish an Elena misstep with a damaging combo. I am still pretty unexperienced in this matchup so I could be way off.
Poison - This is a very bad matchup for Sakura, maybe 7-3 in Posison's favor. Poison's fireball game is similar to Guiles and Guile is one of Sakura's worst matchups. The kicker here I believe is that Poison has the ability to make things happen up close with her own brand of pressure and decent set of normals. Poison will control the pace of the match greatly.
Hugo - This is slightly in favor of Hugo I believe. His st.MP is great in the neutral game along with cr.MK. I believe Hugo beats Sakura on the ground.
Rolento - This is Sakura's favor. Rolento has weak anti airs making him susceptible to jump-ins and air Tatsu. His shenanigans involving the roll and the pogo can easily be seen through and punished by Sakura for big damage. Rolento's defense is almost non existent outside of reversal Ultra, so Sakura can easily pressure and frame trap once she is in. Rolento's ground game is fairly strong however his weaknesses far outweigh this strength in the matchup.
Decapre - I really have no idea here since Dacapre is still very new and unexplored in terms of potential. I am inclined to say for now it is in Sakura's favor. Sakura's normals can easily compete if not trump Decapre's. Unsafe mixups that are blocked can be punished severely.
Taking into account everything that this new version of Street Fighter 4 brings to our favorite Japanese schoolgirl, I am confident in saying that Sakura is still a very strong character and most certainly viable. Look no further than HumanBomb's showing in the recent Hong Kong tournament. She has fallen slightly from her strongest iteration in AE 2012 but her buffs easily make up for her nerfs. It is in the system of USF4 that ultimately does the most damage to her. In conclusion, I'll end with the classic somewhat cliche saying- Sakura will have to work a little harder to earn wins in Ultra than in AE 2012.
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